2010 Election: No Mandate
In: Politics
13 Dec 2010If you had one thing, and one thing only, to predict which Democratic House incumbents would lose their seats in 2010, what would you take? The amount of money they raised? Their TARP vote? Their health care vote? Whether they had a Tea Party opponent? A Nazi reenactor opponent?
The best predictor by far is none of those. It is simply how Democratic their district is.
Here is an related entertaining rant about how stupid MSM and Americans are. (thanks to David Cramer for point it out!)
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3 Responses to 2010 Election: No Mandate
Joel
December 13th, 2010 at 19:51
Not that unusual if you think about it. Those seats most likely to fall with swings against the incumbents are those least leaning to the incumbent.
Timothée
December 13th, 2010 at 20:02
Or in other words, democrats vote for democrat, and vice-versa. Big fat fuckin’ surprise…
Scott
December 13th, 2010 at 21:03
Echoing Joel’s comment, why would you expect anything different?
Or, given that every single election looks like this (just with different color ratios), is there any possible world where you could ever say that there is a “mandate”?